S-Curve Substitution

When a mature technology market stagnates, new technology erodes the incumbent's market share at exponential speed. The displacement occurs in three phases: (1) Early stage—slow adoption (penetration <5%), (2) Explosive growth—50%+ annual increase (penetration 5-50%), (3) Saturation—growth decelerates (penetration approaching 100%). The decline of legacy technology and rise of new technology happen concurrently, leaving competitors a narrow 3-5 year window to respond.

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